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Lies and Statistics
Tony Eberts
Steelheader Contributor

We've all heard the insulting claim that not
all liars are fishermen, but all fishermen are liars. I think it's
time that base calumny was put to rest, and I propose to do it
with a formula worked out 112 years ago by English author Jerome
K. Jerome.
In his classic Three Men in a Boat, Jerome
tells of the conscientious young angler who decided never to lie
about his catches, but to simply exaggerate through a fixed
formula. He would never claim to have caught more than a number 25
per cent above what he actually caught, he pledged. Alas--it
didn't work, because in his first year on the Thames his biggest
haul was three fish--and how can you apply 25 per cent to that?
Raising the exaggeration to a third also was
pretty difficult when he caught only one or two, so he amended the
formula to a simple doubling. This, too, was unsatisfactory
because nobody believed that he only doubled, so boasting of
taking six fish brought only sneers. How could he compete with his
almost-honest story of six when a man who had been skunked claimed
two dozen?
"So, eventually he made one final
arrangement with himself, which he has religiously held to ever
since," wrote Jerome, "and that was to count each fish
he caught as ten, and to assume ten to begin with. For example, if
he didn't catch any fish at all, then he said he had caught
ten--you could never catch less than ten fish by his system; that
was the foundation of it. Then if by any chance he really did
catch one fish, he called it twenty, while two fish would count
thirty, and so on . . . "
Jerome said the formula was recommended by the
Committee of the Thames Anglers' Association, but some of the
older members opposed it, and would consider it only if the base
number were raised from ten to twenty.
Well, that's a bit much, and obviously not much
better than outright lying, which is a sin. But since I almost
always practice catch and release (sometimes using the sporting
Long Line Release system), I have worked out an incremental
equation, by which my catch (and release) simply doubles several
times. It's amazing how quickly two fish can multiply to 32 or
even 64, especially if there are no witnesses.
But we must all eschew the telling of lies.
That's what we have politicians and lawyers for, isn't it?
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